Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Packers vs. Giants
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-104/-118).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-104) after it opened @ 57.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 43.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Aaron Jones has received 43.7% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
