Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for A.J. Dillon from EV Insight

A.J. DillonRushing Yards

Right now, A.J. Dillon’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast A.J. Dillon to accrue 13.4 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs.
After making up 42.2% of his offense’s carries last season, A.J. Dillon has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this season, currently taking on 52.7%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (143 per game) vs. the Raiders defense this year.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to run on 36.1% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Packers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
A.J. Dillon’s 28.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season reflects a a meaningful decline in his rushing ability over last season’s 45.0 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards