Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Will DisslyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, Will Dissly’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-115/-119).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-119) after it opened @ 18.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Will Dissly to accumulate 4.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 35.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (62%) to tight ends since the start of last season (62.0%).
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 5.60 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
