Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Will Dissly from EV Insight

Will DisslyReceiving Yards

Right now, Will Dissly’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-115/-119).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-119) after it opened @ 18.5 (-120).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Will Dissly to accumulate 4.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 35.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (62%) to tight ends since the start of last season (62.0%).
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 5.60 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards