WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Dolphins vs. Giants
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (+100) after it opened @ 92.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate.
- This week, Tyreek Hill is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.7 targets.
- Tyreek Hill has put up quite a few more air yards this year (137.0 per game) than he did last year (131.0 per game).
- Tyreek Hill’s 77.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wideouts.
- Tyreek Hill has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (120.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a heavy 13-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
- Since the start of last season, the fierce Giants defense has allowed a measly 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 10th-lowest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
97
Receiving Yards
97
Receiving Yards
