Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (+100) after it opened @ 92.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate.
This week, Tyreek Hill is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.7 targets.
Tyreek Hill has put up quite a few more air yards this year (137.0 per game) than he did last year (131.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill’s 77.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (120.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a heavy 13-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Giants defense has allowed a measly 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 10th-lowest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
97
Receiving Yards