Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to earn 9.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has been much more involved in his offense’s pass game this season (32.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.6%).
- Tyreek Hill has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (118.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
- Tyreek Hill has notched substantially more receiving yards per game (100.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense as the 2nd-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.77 seconds per play.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Receiving Yards
85
Receiving Yards
