Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler LockettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-106) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to accrue 9.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
- Tyler Lockett’s ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, averaging a mere 2.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.74 figure last year.
- The New Orleans Saints safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards
86
Receiving Yards
