Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
- Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to accrue 10.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- As it relates to air yards, Travis Kelce ranks in the towering 98th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing an astounding 66.0 per game.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
- Travis Kelce has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (68.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (83.1%).
- Travis Kelce’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 74.6% to 65.3%.
- Travis Kelce’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a measly 6.33 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.08 rate last year.
- This year, the stout Minnesota Vikings defense has given up a mere 29.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
