Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).

Pros

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 133.2 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
This year, the porous Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded a staggering 84.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

Cons

The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
T.J. Hockenson has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
T.J. Hockenson’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this year, compiling just 4.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.18 mark last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 7th-best collection of LBs in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards