Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
- The projections expect Stefon Diggs to garner 10.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- With a top-tier 29.9% Target% (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs ranks among the wide receivers with the most usage in the NFL.
- The Bills offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Stefon Diggs’s 106.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a a remarkable progression in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 90.0 rate.
Cons
- The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Bills to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Stefon Diggs has compiled far fewer air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
- The Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.4%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (64.4%).
- Jaguars cornerbacks project as the best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
