Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Tonyan from EV Insight

Robert TonyanReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 3.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan has been among the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 28.0 yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
Robert Tonyan’s ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 86.6%.
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Completion% in football (73.3%) versus TEs since the start of last season (73.3%).
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Cons

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards