Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Packers vs. Giants
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 3.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
- Robert Tonyan has been among the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 28.0 yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
- Robert Tonyan’s ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 86.6%.
- The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Completion% in football (73.3%) versus TEs since the start of last season (73.3%).
- The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
