Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Parker Hesse from EV Insight

Parker HesseReceiving Yards

Right now, Parker Hesse’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (+110/-145).

The public has bet the OVER up to 12.5 (+110) after it opened @ 9.5 (-110).

Pros

The Falcons are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Parker Hesse to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing game this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).
Parker Hesse has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among TEs, completing a stellar 82.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
Parker Hesse has been among the weakest pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging just 12.0 yards per game while checking in at the 21st percentile among tight ends.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, giving up 6.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards