NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Parker HesseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Parker Hesse’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (+110/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 12.5 (+110) after it opened @ 9.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Falcons are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Parker Hesse to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing game this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).
- Parker Hesse has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among TEs, completing a stellar 82.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
- Parker Hesse has been among the weakest pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging just 12.0 yards per game while checking in at the 21st percentile among tight ends.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, giving up 6.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
