Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Falcons vs. Texans
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- In this week’s game, Nico Collins is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 84th percentile among wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
- After accumulating 82.0 air yards per game last season, Nico Collins has posted big gains this season, currently sitting at 101.0 per game.
- Nico Collins has accrued quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (99.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.7% pass rate.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 115.0) versus wide receivers this year.
- The Falcons safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
