Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Williams from EV Insight

Mike WilliamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Williams’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-129) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to garner 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to be a more important option in his team’s air attack this week (24.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).
Mike Williams has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (96.0 per game) than he did last season (91.0 per game).
Mike Williams has been among the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a stellar 63.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (62.8%) to WRs this year (62.8%).
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards