Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
- Mike Gesicki’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 90.6%.
- Mike Gesicki’s pass-game efficiency has been refined this year, averaging 8.26 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.85 figure last year.
- The New York Jets pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 9.19 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.
- The New York Jets safeties project as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense as the 2nd-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.77 seconds per play.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (51.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
