Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Evans from EV Insight

Mike EvansReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Mike Evans has run a route on 89.0% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to accrue 8.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a giant 10-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
83
Receiving Yards