Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- Mike Evans has run a route on 89.0% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to accrue 8.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a giant 10-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
- The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Receiving Yards
83
Receiving Yards
