Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.4 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- With a stellar 66.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (85th percentile) this year, Michael Pittman has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.
- This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-highest rate in football.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The leading projections forecast the Colts as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.
- This year, the strong Titans pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a measly 3.3 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
