Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- With a remarkable 95.5% Route% (97th percentile) this year, Marquise Brown stands among the wide receivers with the most usage in the NFL.
- Marquise Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 61.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The predictive model expects the Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.1% pass rate.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 60.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Bengals defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
- After accumulating 100.0 air yards per game last season, Marquise Brown has seen a big downtick this season, currently boasting 93.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
