WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-131) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.5% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to total 9.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- Mark Andrews has been a more integral piece of his offense’s air attack this year (33.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.6%).
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
- Mark Andrews has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (74.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
- Mark Andrews’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.1% to 67.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
