Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kylen Granson

Kylen GransonReceiving Yards

Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.4 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Kylen Granson to garner 4.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.4%) to TEs since the start of last season (74.4%).

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast the Colts as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.
Kylen Granson’s 59.6% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a a substantial decline in his receiving skills over last year’s 77.7% mark.
Kylen Granson’s 5.0 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a a noteworthy regression in his receiving ability over last season’s 7.3 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards