Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.4 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Our trusted projections expect Kylen Granson to garner 4.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.4%) to TEs since the start of last season (74.4%).
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The leading projections forecast the Colts as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.
- Kylen Granson’s 59.6% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a a substantial decline in his receiving skills over last year’s 77.7% mark.
- Kylen Granson’s 5.0 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a a noteworthy regression in his receiving ability over last season’s 7.3 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
