Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Saints
Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.8 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 64.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- Kendrick Bourne’s 18.9% Target Share this season signifies a a meaningful improvement in his passing offense volume over last season’s 9.8% figure.
- Kendrick Bourne has compiled significantly more air yards this season (98.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.
- The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Kendrick Bourne’s 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 74.8% rate.
- Kendrick Bourne’s 7.3 adjusted yards per target this season represents a a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving talent over last season’s 9.6 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
