Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 4.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
- Juwan Johnson has totaled quite a few more air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).
- Juwan Johnson’s 27.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 14.2.
Cons
- The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
- Juwan Johnson’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.2% to 50.0%.
- Juwan Johnson’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a mere 6.82 yards-per-target compared to a 9.21 mark last season.
- Juwan Johnson has been among the weakest tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 7th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
