NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 81.5 (-110) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to garner 10.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Vikings are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
- Justin Jefferson has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (98.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
103
Receiving Yards
103
Receiving Yards
