Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-139) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to accrue 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among WRs.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a more important option in his team’s air attack this year (18.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (13.3%).
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has totaled substantially more receiving yards per game (57.0) this season than he did last season (23.0).
- JuJu Smith-Schuster’s possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 59.4% to 75.2%.
Cons
- The Chiefs are an enormous 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. WRs since the start of last season, yielding 7.73 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
