Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Irv Smith from EV Insight

Irv SmithReceiving Yards

Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to total 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Vikings are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Irv Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, hauling in just 51.7% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.
Irv Smith has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a measly 5.11 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 12th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards