Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Lions
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New England Patriots will be rolling with backup QB Bailey Zappe in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to be a more important option in his offense’s passing offense this week (14.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.9% in games he has played).
- The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Hunter Henry has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (19.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
