Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-105) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Hayden Hurst’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.1% to 74.0%.
Hayden Hurst’s pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging just 5.67 yards-per-target compared to a 7.17 figure last season.
Hayden Hurst has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 15th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards