Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
49ers vs. Cowboys
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-110).
Pros
- George Kittle has run a route on 83.3% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
- Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to total 5.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
- George Kittle has been among the top tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a remarkable 7.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 75th percentile.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers offense as the most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 31.28 seconds per play.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
