Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).

Pros

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
George Kittle has run a route on 82.5% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to notch 5.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has accrued a colossal 54.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 7.05 yards-per-target vs a 9.36 rate last season.
The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 42.0) to tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards