Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).

Pros

The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.5 plays per game.
With an extraordinary 84.0% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, Evan Engram places as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.
Evan Engram has notched quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).

Cons

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
After accumulating 35.0 air yards per game last year, Evan Engram has posted significant losses this year, now pacing 27.0 per game.
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 35.0) vs. TEs this year.
Since the start of last season, the tough Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a puny 5.6 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards