Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (+106) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Evan Engram has run a route on 80.9% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to notch 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Evan Engram has put up a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Evan Engram has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a mere 5.67 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
- Evan Engram has been among the bottom TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 4.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
