Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+106/-145).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (+106) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Evan Engram has run a route on 80.9% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to notch 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has put up a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Jaguars are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Evan Engram has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a mere 5.67 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
Evan Engram has been among the bottom TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 4.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards