Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Falcons vs. Texans
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).
Pros
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
- In this contest, Drake London is projected by the projection model to slot into the 80th percentile among WRs with 6.9 targets.
- Drake London’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have improved this year, compiling 2.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 0.00 figure last year.
Cons
- The projections expect the Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the Texans defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- Drake London’s 19.6% Target Rate this year signifies a a substantial decline in his passing attack workload over last year’s 29.1% rate.
- Drake London has posted quite a few less air yards this year (60.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- Drake London has posted quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (40.0) this season than he did last season (55.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
