Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-120) after it opened @ 54.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 97.4% of his offense’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 9.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
- Diontae Johnson has notched significantly more air yards this season (101.0 per game) than he did last season (92.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- Diontae Johnson has accrued quite a few less receiving yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
