Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin DuvernayReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Devin Duvernay’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.5% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Duvernay to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this week (18.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).
- Devin Duvernay has accumulated many more air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (18.0 per game).
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has displayed good efficiency against WRs this year, giving up 7.87 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
