Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Devin Duvernay from EV Insight

Devin DuvernayReceiving Yards

Right now, Devin Duvernay’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.5% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Duvernay to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this week (18.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).
Devin Duvernay has accumulated many more air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (18.0 per game).

Cons

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has displayed good efficiency against WRs this year, giving up 7.87 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards