Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to notch 8.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 62.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Deebo Samuel has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, notching a mere 9.24 yards-per-target compared to a 10.42 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards