Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+106/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+106) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- The predictive model expects DeAndre Hopkins to accrue 9.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- The Colts pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.9%) to wide receivers this year (71.9%).
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Titans to pass on 55.0% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
- DeAndre Hopkins has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (80.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (91.9%).
- DeAndre Hopkins has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (99.0 per game) than he did last year (111.0 per game).
- DeAndre Hopkins has accrued quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (55.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
