Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).

Pros

The Giants are a big 13-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the New York Giants offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
Our trusted projections expect Darren Waller to earn 6.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Darren Waller’s 43.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.9.

Cons

Darren Waller has compiled far fewer air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Darren Waller has compiled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
Darren Waller’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 6.96 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.78 figure last year.
This year, the stout Dolphins defense has given up the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a paltry 6.1 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards