WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Dolphins vs. Giants
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Giants are a big 13-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Giants to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect the New York Giants offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
- Our trusted projections expect Darren Waller to earn 6.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Darren Waller’s 43.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.9.
Cons
- Darren Waller has compiled far fewer air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).
- The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Darren Waller has compiled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
- Darren Waller’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 6.96 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.78 figure last year.
- This year, the stout Dolphins defense has given up the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a paltry 6.1 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
