Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Packers vs. Giants
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-103) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Completion% in football (74.7%) to tight ends since the start of last season (74.7%).
- The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Giants rank as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
