Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-131) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling out backup QB Cooper Rush this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Dalton Schultz has run a route on 77.9% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.6% pass rate.
- Dalton Schultz’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 76.3% to 55.3%.
- Dalton Schultz’s pass-game efficiency has declined this season, compiling a measly 4.74 yards-per-target compared to a 8.14 figure last season.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 25.0) vs. TEs this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus TEs since the start of last season, allowing 6.91 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
