NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
- In this week’s game, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.9 targets.
- Dallas Goedert has compiled a colossal 28.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The Eagles O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Rams linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- Dallas Goedert’s 31.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 40.0.
- Dallas Goedert’s 22.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a a significant reduction in his receiving skills over last year’s 58.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
