Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).

Pros

Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
In this week’s game, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.9 targets.
Dallas Goedert has compiled a colossal 28.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Eagles O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Rams linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert’s 31.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 40.0.
Dallas Goedert’s 22.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a a significant reduction in his receiving skills over last year’s 58.0 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards