Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
D.J. Moore has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (55.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore’s 57.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 71.9.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards