Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to notch 9.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Courtland Sutton has compiled far more air yards this year (114.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
Courtland Sutton’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 54.2.

Cons

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 126.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (62.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards