Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Broncos vs. Colts
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to notch 9.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
- Courtland Sutton has compiled far more air yards this year (114.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
- Courtland Sutton’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 54.2.
Cons
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 126.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (62.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
