Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bears are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
In this week’s contest, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.4 targets.
Cole Kmet has notched many more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Cole Kmet has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
Cole Kmet has been among the most efficient receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a fantastic 8.36 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 84th percentile.

Cons

The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (71.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
This year, the imposing Commanders defense has given up a feeble 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards