Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).

Pros

The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.5 plays per game.
In this week’s contest, Christian Kirk is expected by the projection model to land in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.4 targets.
With a stellar 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Christian Kirk ranks as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in football.

Cons

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
Christian Kirk’s 83.4% Route% this season shows a a material diminishment in his air attack usage over last season’s 94.8% rate.
Christian Kirk’s 7.6 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a a noteable decline in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 9.5 figure.
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 113.0) to wideouts this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards