Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.5 plays per game.
- In this week’s contest, Christian Kirk is expected by the projection model to land in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.4 targets.
- With a stellar 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Christian Kirk ranks as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in football.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
- Christian Kirk’s 83.4% Route% this season shows a a material diminishment in his air attack usage over last season’s 94.8% rate.
- Christian Kirk’s 7.6 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a a noteable decline in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 9.5 figure.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 113.0) to wideouts this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
