Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to total 10.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
- Chris Olave has compiled a monstrous 169.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- Chris Olave’s 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
Cons
- The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
- Chris Olave has been among the worst WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 137.0) versus wideouts this year.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
