Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for CeeDee Lamb from EV Insight

CeeDee LambReceiving Yards

Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-130) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling out backup QB Cooper Rush this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 10.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.6% pass rate.
CeeDee Lamb’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 55.9%.
CeeDee Lamb’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a measly 7.10 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 rate last year.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards