Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-fastest tempo in the NFL (adjusted for context) against the Jaguars defense this year, averaging 27.07 seconds per snap.
- Calvin Ridley has run a route on 88.0% of his offense’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
- In this game, Calvin Ridley is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- Calvin Ridley has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, hauling in a measly 54.0% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 18th percentile among wideouts
- Calvin Ridley has been among the weakest wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
- This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a paltry 113.0 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 2nd-best in the NFL.
- Since the start of last season, the formidable Bills pass defense has conceded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a paltry 3.3 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
