Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-123/-111).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-123) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to notch 9.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Brandin Cooks has notched quite a few less air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
Brandin Cooks’s 60.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 71.8.
Brandin Cooks has totaled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Brandin Cooks’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.2% to 59.0%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards