Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Titans
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- Austin Hooper has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 12.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
- Austin Hooper has received a colossal 8.5% of his offense’s air yards this year: 79th percentile among tight ends.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 7.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling just 50.5 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- Austin Hooper has accumulated many fewer receiving yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
