Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-114) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 8.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an integral part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 27.5% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- With an impressive 82.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (94th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown places among the top WRs in the league in the NFL.
Cons
- The Lions are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Lions to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.44 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
